DEMAND FORECASTING IN THE PRESENCE OF UNOBSERVED LOST-SALES

摘要

A demand forecasting system includes a market information processing module that processes a historical sales dataset to provide a lost market rate probability dataset, a lost-sales forecasting module that processes the lost market rate probability dataset to provide a lost-sales dataset, a market size forecasting module that processes the lost market rate probability dataset to provide a market size dataset as a function of the lost market rate probability, a demand forecasting module that processes the lost-sales dataset and the historical sales dataset to provide a demand dataset and a market share dataset as functions of the lost-sales dataset and the historical sales dataset and a best fit optimization module that processes the market size dataset and the market share dataset to provide a set of best fit parameters for the market size and the market share or the demand. A corresponding method is also described.