System and Method for Selecting Portfolio Managers and Products

摘要

Disclosed are a system and a method for selecting index Portfolio Managers/Products and active Portfolio Managers/Products for an investment portfolio. The invention separates the performance impact of temporal market events from a Portfolio Manager's active security and/or factor selection skill. The method includes preparing data by calculating excess returns for Portfolio Managers/Products using stock market indices, extracting Active Share, and extracting raw factor data and generating composite indices for sectors. Using the skill metrics, Active Shares, and manager 36-month return, a cross sectional rolling regression model with rolling one-month window is calibrated to forecast the probability of outperforming a benchmark over the subsequent 36-month period. To determine the efficacy of each of the forecast models, an analysis is performed to determine the overall accuracy for each one. P-values are used to measure significance of the independent variables. Accuracy is measured by comparing forecasts with managers' actual excess returns.