PREDICATING PROJECT RELIABILITY, RISK, AND VARIATION BY USING EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION

摘要

Disclosed are methods for using exponential distribution function to predict project reliability and project risk at a project task level. Based on a project serial model assumption, project reliability and project risk can additionally be predicted at a phase level and at a final project level. The disclosed methods can also be used for predicting project schedule risk, project budget risk, and project supply chain risk. In addition, the disclosed methods provide an exponential distribution function for predicating project variations at a project task level. Based on a project serial model assumption, the disclosed methods can be used to predict project variations at a phase level as well as a final project level. The disclosed methods can also be used to predicting project schedule delays, project budget overages, and project supply chain part delays.