The purpose of the present invention is to evaluate the degradation of a denitration catalyst arranged within a denitration device installed downstream from a combustion boiler in a coal-fired power generation system. In a method for predicting the degradation of a denitration catalyst arranged within a denitration device that removes nitrogen oxides included in exhaust gas generated as a result of the combustion of coal in a thermal power generation system using coal, the degradation of the denitration catalyst is evaluated by measuring the thickness of a coating layer that includes particles having a particle size of 2 µm or less and that is deposited on the surface of the denitration catalyst. The thickness of the coating layer is preferably determined by measuring element information for the coating layer, especially Si element information.
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