Occupancy rate prediction device and availability rate prediction method

摘要

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide an availability factor prediction apparatus and an availability factor prediction method capable of accurately predicting an availability factor on the basis of little achievement data.SOLUTION: An availability factor prediction apparatus comprises: risk-matrix storage means 24 for storing initial failure risk matrices 24a, 24b and 24c that define a correspondence relation between levels of evaluation items associated with a failure rate and failure factors; failure-factor setting means 25 which sets a failure factor of a constituent element on the basis of the maps 24a, 24b, and 24c from the level related to the evaluation item of the constituent element; failure-rate calculation means 26 for estimating a failure rate of the constituent element using the failure factors; and plant availability factor calculation means 27 for estimating an availability factor of a to-be-predicted machine system on the basis of the failure rate of each of a plurality of constituent elements. The initial failure risk matrices 24a, 24b, and 24c are fitted so as to match the achievement of an availability factor of a similar machine system estimated by the plant availability factor calculation means 27.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 2