Short and long term temperature forecasting system for the production, management and sale of energy resources

摘要

Procedure for a meteorological forecast of the temperature, from a short term of approximately 1 day to a long term of approximately 90 days, to: - manage the commerce, transport and storage of energy resources such as natural gas, electrical energy, oil and refined products; - estimate the production of electric energy obtained by combustion of natural gas in combined cycle power plants, improving efficiency and reducing environmental impact; - reduce the imbalance in the transport and distribution networks of gas and electricity; - forecast industrial and civil consumption to manage the storage of oil and refined products, and optimize the logistics of service stations; - manage the logistics of materials and personnel at remote work sites related to exploration and production operations, construction of industrial plants or pipelines, in any geographic area; - optimize oil supply and industrial petrochemical processes driven by market trends, in which the procedure includes the steps of: - acquiring meteorological parameters of a large-scale geographical area (SG) that has a predefined extension; - decompose the large-scale geographical area (SG) into a base area, which is derived from the large-scale geographical area (SG), and into a regional area (SR), in which the regional area (SR) is defined such as the difference between the large-scale geographical area (SG) and the base area; - determine the temperature near the ground surface of the base area, based on the parameters available in the large-scale geographical area (SG), using an empirical-statistical model that is a statistical scale reduction; - determine the trends of the meteorological parameters in the regional area (SR), from the meteorological parameters available in the large-scale geographical area (SG), using a dynamic numerical model that is a dynamic scale reduction; in which procedure is characterized by comprising the additional step of: - performing, through an application model, a set of scale reductions, which is a combination of the empirical-statistical model and the dynamic numerical model, to obtain from the short term of approximately 1 day to the long term of approximately 90 days, the forecast of the temperature near the soil surface, in which said application model adds a statistical scaling of the data for temperatures near the surface which, therefore, are re-assimilated in the regional area (SR) as new temperature values near the surface area of the regional area (SR), introducing, during the dynamic scale reduction phase, a range of Pseudo-observations, which act appropriately in the regional area (SR).