Method and system for nowcasting precipitation based on probability distributions

摘要

#$%^&*AU2018202331A120180426.pdf#####Abstract A system and method for generating nowcasts for a given location over a period. The system receives weather observations and predictions for the given location from a plurality of weather sources, and processes this information to determine a probability distribution of the type of precipitation (PType) and a probability distribution of the rate of precipitation (PRate) over a period. These two probability distributions may then be combined into a plurality of probability distributions (PTypeRate forecasts) indicating the probability of occurrence of a certain type of precipitation at a certain rate over a period over the given location. In some embodiments, instead of determining the PType distribution, one precipitation type may be selected based on the weather observations being inputted to the system to produce the PTypeRate forecast indicating the probability of occurrence of the selected precipitation type at a certain rate over a period over the give location.