METHOD FOR PREDICTION THE SOLAR PROTON PARTICLE

摘要

The present invention relates to a method for predicting a solar proton particle, comprising: constructing a proton data; Collecting and classifying the proton data; Selecting 20 pieces of the collected data to construct a system model set and data; Inputting proton data and a proton system model based on the system model data; Measuring similarity based on the input data; Selecting a system model for predicting proton data for three days after the input data based on the system model finally determined from the similarity measurement; Setting a pre-current state value for the selected system model to a proton estimate; Estimating a covariance error based on the covariance error of the previous state value plus the parental variance; Calculating a Kalman gain based on the predicted covariance error; Calculating and determining the proton estimate; Calculating and correcting the covariance error based on the determined value by calculating the proton estimate; And outputting a proton prediction result.