Dynamic prediction of traffic congestion by tracing feature-space trajectory of sparse floating-car data

摘要

A traffic situation is predicted based on the correlation in the traffic situation between road sections. A base vector generation unit 102 generates the base vectors constituting a feature space representing the correlation between a plurality of links by making a principal component analysis for the necessary time in the past recorded in a necessary time database. A projection point trajectory generation unit 104 records a projection point trajectory of projecting the necessary time in the past recorded in the necessary time database to the feature space in a projection point database 105. A feature space projection unit 103 projects the necessary time at present to the feature space, and a neighboring projection point retrieval unit 106, 801 retrieves a past projection point in the neighborhood of the concerned projection point from the projection point database 105, and a projection point trajectory trace unit 107, 802 traces the trajectory of past projection points starting from the retrieved neighboring projection point for a prediction target time width, and an inverse projection unit 108 inversely projects the end point of the concerned trajectory to calculate the predicted value of the necessary time.