Systems and methods are disclosed for forecasting lightning activity. Such a method may include obtaining radar reflectivity data from a radar detection device for multiple altitudes over an environmental region for a past period of time, and dividing the reflectivity data into multiple sub-regions within the region. The method may also include obtaining lightning discharge data for the environmental region from a lightning discharge detecting device for a past period of time, and establishing a customizable mathematical operator based on the radar reflectivity data and the lightning discharge data. The method may additionally include receiving forecast radar data for at least one of the sub-region for a future time period, and forecasting a probability of lightning strikes in at least one of the sub-regions based on applying the customizable mathematical operator to the forecast radar data.
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