Predicting and utilizing variability of travel times in mapping services

摘要

A system for predicting variability of travel time for a trip at a particular time may utilize a machine learning model including latent variables that are associated with the trip. The machine learning model may be trained from historical trip data that is based on location-based measurements reported from mobile devices. Once trained, the machine learning model may be utilized for predicting variability of travel time. A process may include receiving an origin, a destination, and a start time associated with a trip, obtaining candidate routes that run from the origin to the destination, and predicting, based at least in part on the machine learning model, a probability distribution of travel time for individual ones of the candidate routes. One or more routes may be recommended based on the predicted probability distribution, and a measure of travel time for the recommended route(s) may be provided.