Quantify a combined impact of interdependent uncertain resources in an electrical grid

摘要

Embodiments herein relate to improvements in a stochastic prediction of insecure power generation and demand quantities to quantify an impact on a power grid. To improve the stochastic prediction, a method includes fitting marginal distributions to data of the uncertain power generation and demand quantities through power generation and supply nodes of the power grid. The power generation and supply nodes provide corresponding unsafe power generation and demand quantities based on a renewable energy source. The method also includes determining a correlation structure between the power generation and demand nodes by transforming the data from borderline distributions into a second distribution and by fitting a multivariate time series to transformed data. The method also involves simulating a multivariate stochastic prediction with an improved correlation structure.