Electricity supply and demand plan creation device and electric power supply and demand plan creation method

摘要

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To provide an electric power demand planning apparatus and a method for creating a power generation plan in which a risk index is optimized so as to reflect a risk tolerance of a business operator assuming fluctuations in electric power demand. SOLUTION: In an electric power supply and demand plan creating device 100, a data acquisition unit 11 acquires demand probability model data 111, generator data 112, fuel price data 113 and reliability level data 114 as data necessary for calculation, and the data It is stored in the storage unit 12. The demand scenario creation unit 13 creates a plurality of demand scenario data representing fluctuations in power demand in chronological order using the demand probability model data 111. The planning unit 14 uses VaR, which is a percentage point of profit / loss corresponding to the confidence level of the confidence level data 114, as an objective function, and constrains it by using the generator data 112, the fuel price data 113, the demand scenario data, and the confidence level data 114. A power generation plan is created by formulating the conditions and solving the optimization problem that minimizes VaR. [Selection diagram] Fig. 1