Aftershock damage expansion prediction method and its prediction system

摘要

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To solve the problem that conventional methods can only give the probability of occurrence of aftershocks but are unable to forecast damages from aftershocks by providing a forecasting method for expansion of damages from aftershocks.SOLUTION: By a method for forecasting expansion of damages from aftershocks, the extent of damages to buildings by aftershocks following the main shock is forecast when data on the magnitude Mof the main shock and data on the cumulative increment of damages ΔDto the forecast object buildings attributable to the main shock are given. The result of cumulative addition of anticipated values of energy in individual aftershocks to the number of times of the aftershocks until the aftershocks are ceased is defined as the total energy Eof the aftershocks, and by figuring out the total energy E, the cumulative damage increments ΔDattributable to the aftershocks are forecast.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 1