Uncertainty modeling in traffic demand prediction

摘要

The disclosure involves a method comprising clustering a plurality of observation samples related to historical travel demands into one or more clusters; for each cluster, constructing an actual probability distribution of the historical travel demands corresponding to the observation samples in the cluster; for each cluster, inputting observation samples in the cluster into a prediction model for predicting future travel demands to produce a result of prediction; for each cluster, computing a predicted probability distribution of the historical travel demands corresponding to the observation samples in the cluster based on the result of prediction; for each cluster, evaluating a difference between the actual probability distribution and the predicted probability distribution of the cluster; and modifying the prediction model so that a statistical sum of the differences for the one or more clusters is decreased.