Discovery and scoring of causal assertions in scientific publications

摘要

Examples of the disclosure are directed toward generating a causation score with respect to an agent and an outcome, and projecting a future causation score distribution. For example, a causation score may be determined with respect to a hypothesis that a given agent causes a given outcome, and the score may indicate the acceptance of that hypothesis in the scientific community, as described by scientific literature. A future causation score distribution, then, may indicate a probability distribution over possible future causation scores, thereby predicting the scientific acceptance of the hypothesis at some specific date in the future. A future causation score distribution can be projected by first generating one or more future publication datasets, and then determining causation scores for each of the one or more future publication datasets.