Forecasting national crop yield during the growing season using weather indices

摘要

A method for determining national crop yields during the growing season may be accomplished using a system that receives agricultural data records that are used to forecast a national crop yield for a particular year. Weather index values are calculated and aggregated from the agricultural data records. Crop yield estimating instructions select representative features from aggregated weather index data and create a covariate matrix for each specific geographic area. Linear regression instructions calculate the crop yield for the specific geographic area for the specific year using the corresponding covariate matrix for that specific year. The crop estimating instructions determine a national crop yield for the specific year using the sum of the crop yields for the specific geographic areas for the specific year nationally adjusted using national yield adjustment instructions. In an embodiment, the crop yield may refer to a specific crop yield such as corn yield.