method and system of prediction of drilling time using probabilistic analysis method

摘要

In order to improve the accuracy when predicting the drilling period, the present invention includes drilling rig movement and installation, drilling, circulating, casing, cementing, tripping, testing so that a borehole database according to the drilling operation and borehole section and a database for each block are built. A first step of individually classifying the working processes for each drilling section, inputting them to an input unit, and storing them in a database unit; A function distribution method is extracted based on the data stored in the database unit, and a distribution factor for the drilling time of the probability distribution for each drilling section is calculated and stored in the database unit so that the generation range of random numbers generated at random is set. The second step; As the random number is generated through the random number generator within the range of the distribution factor stored in the database and Monte Carlo simulation is performed, an individual probability distribution for the drilling operation time for each drilling section according to the drilling depth is calculated by the calculator and the A third step stored in the database unit; And the drilling work time for each drilling section is summed by the calculation unit to calculate the total estimated drilling work period and stored in the database, but the total estimated drilling work period required for the drilling work process through the stored total estimated drilling work period A method for predicting a drilling period using a probabilistic analysis method including a predicted fourth step is provided.