Characteristics of the 2009/2010 financial crisis in Greece and the probability of a bank run

摘要

This thesis investigates in what ways, if any, the 2009/2010 financial crisis inGreece is unique and how likely a bank run is to occur in the country. To investigatethe first matter, a qualitative approach is used to determine the characteristics ofGreece’s financial crisis. The characteristics are then compared to those of earliercrises in other countries. The probability of a bank run is determined by a quantitativeapproach, using the Kaminsky-Reinhart model.Our results show that the characteristics of the financial crisis in Greece areindebtedness, the Euro, moral hazard and a non-existent acceptance for austerity.Each one of these have also been characteristics of previous crises in other countries,and thus, we do not find the crisis in Greece to be unique. However, it could beargued that some of the events leading up to the characteristics are unique. Forexample, the way in which the Greece government used its accumulated debt - togive the citizens the world’s most beneficial pension terms - is unique. If we were tochoose one crisis that resembles the one in Greece the most, the 2008 financial crisisin Latvia would be it.Signals indicating a financial crisis in Greece have been increasing since 2006/2007,and the probability of a banking crisis was 15% at the end of 2009, but would accordingto the model probably have been higher if it was not for Greece being a memberof the eurozone. A measure of the probability of a currency crisis is also obtainedthrough the model, though this number is probably an overestimate due to the Euroas Greece’s common currency. Furthermore, results from the Kaminsky-Reinhartmodel support previous research on the causality between banking crises and currencycrises; signals in Greece were indicating a banking crisis prior to a currencycrisis.