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Fine-Tuning Nonhomogeneous Regression for Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts: Unanimous Predictions, Heavy Tails, and Link Functions

机译:用于概率降水预报的微调非齐次回归:一致预测,重尾和链接函数

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摘要

Raw ensemble forecasts of precipitation amounts and their forecast uncertainty have large errors, especially in mountainous regions where the modeled topography in the numerical weather prediction model and real topography differ most. Therefore, statistical postprocessing is typically applied to obtain automatically corrected weather forecasts. This study applies the nonhomogenous regression framework as a state-of-the-art ensemble postprocessing technique to predict a full forecast distribution and improves its forecast performance with three statistical refinements. First of all, a novel split-type approach effectively accounts for unanimous zero precipitation predictions of the global ensemble model of the ECMWF. Additionally, the statistical model uses a censored logistic distribution to deal with the heavy tails of precipitation amounts. Finally, it is investigated which are the most suitable link functions for the optimization of regression coefficients for the scale parameter. These three refinements are tested for 10 stations in a small area of the European Alps for lead times from +24 to +144 h and accumulation periods of 24 and 6 h. Together, they improve probabilistic forecasts for precipitation amounts as well as the probability of precipitation events over the default postprocessing method. The improvements are largest for the shorter accumulation periods and shorter lead times, where the information of unanimous ensemble predictions is more important.
机译:降水量的原始集合预报及其预报不确定性有很大的误差,特别是在山区,这些地区的数值天气预报模型和实际地形的模拟地形差异最大。因此,通常应用统计后处理来获取自动更正的天气预报。这项研究将非均质回归框架用作最新的整体后处理技术,以预测完整的预测分布并通过三个统计改进来改进其预测性能。首先,一种新颖的拆分类型方法有效地解释了ECMWF全球总体模型的一致零降水预测。此外,统计模型使用审查的逻辑分布来处理大量的降水量尾巴。最后,研究了最适合用于优化比例参数回归系数的链接函数。对这三个改进方案在欧洲阿尔卑斯山一小段地区的10个站点进行了测试,交货时间为+24至+144小时,累积时间为24和6小时。通过默认的后处理方法,它们共同提高了降水量的概率预测以及降水事件的概率。对于较短的累积周期和较短的交货时间,改进是最大的,其中一致的整体预测信息更为重要。

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