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Excess mortality during the warm summer of 2015 in Switzerland

机译:瑞士2015年温暖夏季的死亡率过高

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摘要

In Switzerland, summer 2015 was the second warmest summer for 150 years (after summer 2003). For summer 2003, a 6.9% excess mortality was estimated for Switzerland, which corresponded to 975 extra deaths. The impact of the heat in summer 2015 in Switzerland has not so far been evaluated.; Daily age group-, gender- and region-specific all-cause excess mortality during summer (June-August) 2015 was estimated, based on predictions derived from quasi-Poisson regression models fitted to the daily mortality data for the 10 previous years. Estimates of excess mortality were derived for 1 June to 31 August, at national and regional level, as well as by month and for specific heat episodes identified in summer 2015 by use of seven different definitions.; 804 excess deaths (5.4%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.0‒7.9%) were estimated for summer 2015 compared with previous summers, with the highest percentage obtained for July (11.6%, 95% CI 3.7‒19.4%). Seventy-seven percent of deaths occurred in people aged 75 years and older. Ticino (10.3%, 95% CI -1.8‒22.4%), Northwestern Switzerland (9.5%, 95% CI 2.7‒16.3%) and Espace Mittelland (8.9%, 95% CI 3.7‒14.1%) showed highest excess mortality during this three-month period, whereas fewer deaths than expected (-3.3%, 95% CI -9.2‒2.6%) were observed in Eastern Switzerland, the coldest region. The largest excess estimate of 23.7% was obtained during days when both maximum apparent and minimum night-time temperature reached extreme values (+32 and +20 °C, respectively), with 31.0% extra deaths for periods of three days or more.; Heat during summer 2015 was associated with an increase in mortality in the warmer regions of Switzerland and it mainly affected older people. Estimates for 2015 were only a little lower compared to those of summer 2003, indicating that mitigation measures to prevent heat-related mortality in Switzerland have not become noticeably effective in the last 10 years.
机译:在瑞士,2015年夏季是150年来第二高的夏季(仅次于2003年夏季)。对于2003年夏季,瑞士的死亡率估计高出6.9%,相当于多了975例死亡。到目前为止,尚未评估瑞士2015年夏季高温的影响。根据前10年每日死亡率数据拟合的准Poisson回归模型得出的预测,估计了2015年夏季(6月至8月)的每日年龄组,性别和地区特定的全因超额死亡率。使用7种不同的定义得出了6月1日至8月31日在国家和区域一级以及在2015年夏季确定的按月和特定炎热发作的超额死亡率的估算。与先前的夏季相比,2015年夏季估计有804例超额死亡(5.4%,95%置信区间[CI] 3.0%= 7.9%),七月份的死亡率最高(11.6%,95%CI 3.7%* 19.4%)。 77%的死亡发生在75岁及以上的人群中。提契诺州(10.3%,95%CI -1.8‒22.4%),瑞士西北部(9.5%,95%CI 2.7‒16.3%)和Espace Mittelland(8.9%,95%CI 3.7‒14.1%)在此期间死亡率最高三个月期间,而在瑞士最冷的地区东部,死亡人数低于预期(-3.3%,95%CI -9.2%至2.6%)。当最高表观温度和最低夜间温度均达到极值(分别为+32和+20°C)时,三天或更长时间的死亡人数增加了31.0%。 2015年夏季炎热与瑞士温暖地区的死亡率上升有关,并且主要影响老年人。 2015年的估算值与2003年夏季的估算值相比仅略低一点,这表明在过去的10年中,瑞士为防止与热有关的死亡率而采取的缓解措施并未见效。

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