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Inflation Targeting and Public Deficit in Emerging Countries: A Time Varying Treatment Effect Approach

机译:新兴国家的通货膨胀目标和公共赤字:一种时间变化的治疗效果方法

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摘要

Several studies including Minea,Tapsoba and Villieu(2012) and Lucotte (2012) claim that in emerging countries, the adoption of inflation targeting(IT) monetary policy and its discipline character allow intensifying their efforts to collect tax revenue and/or expenditure rationalization, and allows the reduction of their budget deficits (Kadria and Ben Aissa, 2014). But, the lag in the effect of monetary policy contains vital information for the policy evaluation (Fang and Miller, 2011). Hence, our contribution to the previous literature is then to evaluate the time varying treatment effect of the IT's adoption by emerging countries on their budgetary discipline in terms of reducing or mastering the public deficit. To do this, we used the propensity score matching approach in order to take account of this "lag effect" or from this effect throughout time. Our empirical analysis, conducted on a sample of 41 economies (20 IT and 21 non-IT economies) for the period from 1990 to 2010, shows that the lag in effect of IT on public deficit performance proves to be shorter and gradual for emerging countries that have adopted this monetary policy framework and our conclusions corroborate the literature disciplining effect of IT on fiscal policy.
机译:包括Minea,Tapsoba和Villieu(2012)和Lucotte(2012)在内的几项研究声称,在新兴国家,采用通货膨胀目标制(IT)货币政策及其纪律特征可以使他们加大努力来收集税收和/或支出合理化,并可以减少预算赤字(Kadria和Ben Aissa,2014年)。但是,货币政策效果的滞后性为政策评估提供了重要信息(Fang和Miller,2011年)。因此,我们对先前文献的贡献是,就减少或掌握公共赤字而言,评估新兴国家采用IT对其预算纪律的时变处理效果。为此,我们使用了倾向得分匹配方法,以考虑这种“滞后效应”或整个时间的这种滞后效应。我们对1990年至2010年期间的41个经济体(20个IT和21个非IT经济体)进行了实证分析,结果表明,对于新兴国家,IT对公共赤字绩效的滞后时间被证明是较短且渐进的采纳了这种货币政策框架的企业,我们的结论证实了IT对财政政策的学科约束作用。

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