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Are Proposed African Monetary Unions Optimal Currency Areas? Real, Monetary and Fiscal Policy Convergence Analysis

机译:拟议的非洲货币联盟是否是最佳货币区?实际,货币和财政政策趋同分析

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摘要

Purpose – A spectre is hunting embryonic African monetary zones: the EMU crisis. This paper assesses real, monetary and fiscal policy convergence within the proposed WAM and EAM zones. The introduction of common currencies in West and East Africa is facing stiff challenges in the timing of monetary convergence, the imperative of central bankers to apply common modeling and forecasting methods of monetary policy transmission, as well as the requirements of common structural and institutional characteristics among candidate states.Design/methodology/approach – In the analysis: monetary policy targets inflation and financial dynamics of depth, efficiency, activity and size; real sector policy targets economic performance in terms of GDP growth at macro and micro levels; while, fiscal policy targets debt-to-GDP and deficit-to-GDP ratios. A dynamic panel GMM estimation with data from different non-overlapping intervals is employed. The implied rate of convergence and the time required to achieve full (100%) convergence are then computed from the estimations. Findings – Findings suggest overwhelming lack of convergence: (1) initial conditions for financial development are different across countries; (2) fundamental characteristics as common monetary policy initiatives and IMF backed financial reform programs are implemented differently across countries; (3) there is remarkable evidence of cross-country variations in structural characteristics of macroeconomic performance; (4) institutional cross-country differences could also be responsible for the deficiency in convergence within the potential monetary zones; (5) absence of fiscal policy convergence and no potential for eliminating idiosyncratic fiscal shocks due to business cycle incoherence.Practical implications – As a policy implication, heterogeneous structural and institutional characteristics across countries are giving rise to different levels and patterns of financial intermediary development. Thus, member states should work towards harmonizing cross-country differences in structural and institutional characteristics that hamper the effectiveness of convergence in monetary, real and fiscal policies. This could be done by stringently monitoring the implementation of existing common initiatives and/or the adoption of new reforms programs. Originality/value – It is one of the few attempts to investigate the issue of convergence within the proposed WAM and EAM unions.
机译:目的–一个幽灵正在寻找非洲新兴货币区:欧洲货币联盟危机。本文评估了拟议的WAM和EAM区域内的实际,货币和财政政策融合。西非和东非共同货币的引入在货币趋同的时期面临严峻的挑战,中央银行必须运用货币政策传导的通用模型和预测方法,以及各国之间共同的结构和制度特征的要求设计/方法/方法–分析中:货币政策针对通货膨胀和深度,效率,活动和规模的金融动态;实体部门政策以宏观和微观层面的GDP增长为目标,以经济表现为目标;同时,财政政策的目标是债务与GDP的比率以及赤字与GDP的比率。采用具有来自不同非重叠间隔的数据的动态面板GMM估计。然后,根据估算值计算出隐含的收敛速度和达到完全(100%)收敛所需的时间。调查结果–调查结果表明,绝大多数国家缺乏共识:(1)各国金融发展的初始条件各不相同; (2)各国实施共同货币政策举措和由国际货币基金组织支持的金融改革计划的基本特征有所不同; (3)大量证据表明,各国宏观经济绩效的结构特征存在差异; (4)跨国机构间的差异也可能导致潜在货币区内的汇合不足; (5)缺乏财政政策融合,也没有消除因商业周期不连贯而造成的特有财政冲击的可能性。实际意义–作为一项政策含义,各国之间结构和制度的异质性导致了金融中介发展的不同水平和模式。因此,成员国应努力协调在结构和制度特征上的跨国差异,这会阻碍货币,实际和财政政策趋同的有效性。可以通过严格监控现有共同举措的执行情况和/或通过新的改革计划来实现。原创性/价值–这是研究拟议的WAM和EAM联盟内的趋同问题的少数尝试之一。

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    Simplice A Asongu;

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  • 年度 2012
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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 {"code":"en","name":"English","id":9}
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