Modeling the dispersion of atelines (primates, atelinae) through scenarios of climate change and habitat fragmentation in Colombia. Conservation implications for the persistence of species into the future

摘要

Abstract. Prioritizing landscape connectivity is a primary objective in the conservation planning of biodiversity, since it is assumed that there will be scenarios where the dispersal of species would be necessary due to habitat fragmentation and climate change. Atelines (Primates, Atelinae) include species of Spider Monkeys (Ateles spp.) and Woolly monkeys (Lagothrix spp.); primates with great importance for the tropical forest ecosystems where they inhabit because of their role as seed dispersers. Due to habitat loss and habitat fragmentation, hunting and illegal trade, these species are increasingly endangered. The aim of this study is to identify priority areas of conservation for ateline dispersal in Colombia in order to maintain connectivity among their populations under scenarios of habitat fragmentation and climate change in the period 2000-2020. Spatiotemporal functions of habitat quality and cost flow were constructed to evaluate the probability of dispersal and the dispersal flux of each species under a graph-theoretical approach, based on the following variables: i) net primary productivity, ii) cover type, human iii) population density and iv) climatic habitat suitability. The resulting dispersal scenarios show differences between species located in different regions: i) species distributed in the Amazon (A. belzebuth and L. lagothricha lagothricha) do not show problems in terms of spatial or temporary connectivity; ii) A. geoffroyi distributed over the Pacific region shows a slight trend towards habitat fragmentation, however in the short term (10 years) these effects do not cause ruptures in the connectivity for the species; iii) Andean species (A. hybridus and L. lagothricha lugens) show a clear and drastic loss of habitat over time, strongly limiting their current and future dispersion possibilities. Changes in habitat climatic suitability for A. belzebuth, A. geoffroyi and L. lagothricha lagothricha are higher in moister and warmer low-land areas, responding to increases in precipitation and temperature projected in climate change scenarios. For A. hybridus and L. lagothricha lugens the climatic habitat suitability is greater in warmer regions with moderate elevations, where major process of deforestation have occurred over dry and Andean forests. Based on connectivity analysis we propose the following as conservation targets: i) source patches, ii) areas of persistence, iii) lost, iv) and regenerated habitat, v) stepping stones, vi) the most efficient network of habitat connected patches (minimum spanning tree), vii) and the probable physical connections where species dispersal would take place. Spatial and persistent habitat representativeness in protected areas (PAs) for each species is low. The results show that larger PAs can be an effective measure for habitat conservation of species, since patches of remaining habitat under these regions are mostly conserved. We identify the Serranía de San Lucas as a priority conservation area; it is not legally protected and is the main source patch for A. hybridus, the ateline species treated in most detail.