Commercial property markets and property cycles in Chinese cities

摘要

This paper uses interview data to explore and examines property markets in threeChinese cities with the focus placed on the emergence of the commercial propertymarkets and the government-market interplay, noting the market formation processand cycles that are ‘unexpected’ in a transitional economy. The research identifiedvarying opinions and perceptions among key stake-holders about cycles in China’semerging commercial property markets. Interviews in the three cities suggested aspectrum of factors that may substantially affect the stability of China’s officemarkets. A cross-sectional comparison of the three cities has revealed a similarpattern of cyclical behaviour highlighting structural change and state intervention withleads-and-lags, in spite of the dispersion in geography, culture and market maturity.The various views offered about market mechanism and cyclical behaviour representvarying levels of market maturity. These brief insights offer an opportunity to developan alternative approach to measure property market conditions in emerging orimmature markets such as China.