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To raise or not to raise: Impact assessment of Russia's gas price reform

机译:提高与否提高:对俄罗斯天然气价格改革的影响评估

摘要

One of grand challenges which are faced by Russia today is to deregulate its gas market while favouring longer-term growth of economy. Since the 1990s, several proposals for structural reforms of Russian gas industry have been intensively debated, including the split-up of Gazprom. From the mid-2000s onwards, the key component of the reforms has become the introduction of a new pricing scheme for natural gas supply at the domestic markets. This is claimed to fit in a policy promoting energy efficiency, increasing investments in natural gas production and bringing the natural gas price on the domestic market closer to long term cost recovery. Underpricing of natural gas at the domestic markets was an explicit feature of the Soviet era, aimed at stimulating industrial growth. In the post-Soviet period, domestic gas prices were kept at relatively low levels to back up economic recovery, though this strategy had become increasingly untenable by 2006 in the light of Gazprom's investment needs into new extraction fields. A number of studies supported an upward price correction as a prerequisite for any structural reforms of Russian gas industry. Price increases on domestic market have been considered as a remedy to overcome the risk of a shortage in Russian gas sector. Since then domestic gas prices have been following a steady upward trend. The average regulated gas prices for both industrial consumers and private households have more than doubled from 2006 to 2011 . Nonetheless, today Russian consumers pay one third of the gas price charged abroad.. The growing momentum for gas price liberalization in Russia is increasingly constrained by fears of potentially strong adverse impact that market-based price setting principle will have on the economy. Based on a novel multi-regional, multi-sector and multi-household computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Russian Federation, this paper presents a simple yet a flexible framework for evaluating gas price reform. We found that the reform is feasible at low economic cost, without greater disparities in terms of increased inequity within and between country's federal districts. Large redistributive impacts can arise from specific mechanisms to recycle revenues. In terms of global environmental credentials, gas price liberalization can bring Russia on a substantially more sustainable path. The potential to foster adoption of energy efficiency measures by exploiting the revenue-recycling effect is, however, limited.
机译:俄罗斯当今面临的重大挑战之一是放松天然气市场的监管,同时促进经济的长期增长。自1990年代以来,对俄罗斯天然气工业结构改革的若干提议进行了激烈的辩论,包括俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司的拆分。从2000年代中期开始,改革的主要内容已成为引入针对国内市场天然气供应的新定价方案。据称,这符合提高能源效率,增加对天然气生产的投资并使国内市场上的天然气价格更接近长期成本回收的政策。在国内市场,天然气价格低估是苏联时代的显着特征,旨在刺激工业增长。在后苏联时期,为了支持经济复苏,国内天然气价格一直保持在较低水平,尽管鉴于俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司对新的开采领域的投资需求,该战略到2006年变得越来越难以为继。许多研究支持将价格上调作为俄罗斯天然气行业任何结构改革的先决条件。国内市场上的价格上涨已被认为是克服俄罗斯天然气行业短缺风险的一种补救措施。从那以后,国内天然气价格一直保持稳定的上升趋势。从2006年到2011年,工业用户和私人家庭的平均受监管天然气价格均上涨了一倍以上。尽管如此,今天俄罗斯的消费者仍需支付国外收取的天然气价格的三分之一。俄罗斯对天然气价格自由化的增长势头正日益受到市场对价格定价原则可能对经济产生潜在负面影响的担忧的束缚。基于俄罗斯联邦新颖的多区域,多部门和多住户可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型,本文提出了一种简单而灵活的评估天然气价格改革的框架。我们发现,以低廉的经济成本进行改革是可行的,而不会因国家联邦区域内部和国家之间的不平等加剧而产生更大的差距。大量的再分配影响可能来自于回收收入的特定机制。就全球环境信用而言,天然气价格自由化可以使俄罗斯走上实质上更可持续的道路。但是,通过利用税收回收效应来促进采取节能措施的潜力是有限的。

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