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The optimal subsidy on electric vehicles in a metropolitan area - a SCGE study for Germany

机译:大城市地区电动汽车的最优补贴 - 德国的sCGE研究

摘要

Many governments subsidize electric mobility (E-mobility) to increase the share of electric vehicles (EV) in the car fleet. This aims at reducing carbon emissions. Despite that there is not much research on the full economic costs and benefits of this measures. There are only a few Cost Benefit Analyses (CBA). They, however, do not take into account repercussion and substitution effects. We fill this gap in the literature and examine subsidies to EVs in a full spatial general equilibrium model. Since cities are the main area were EVs will be used, we focus on cities and apply a spatial approach. In particular, we ask whether it is optimal to subsidize or tax electric vehicles and, how large, the corresponding optimal rate is. We, first, derive analytically the optimal subsidy in a spatial partial equilibrium model of a city with two zones where commuting, carbon emissions, endogenous labor supply, fuel and power taxes are considered and where we distinguish between fuel vehicles and electric vehicles. There we find that the optimal subsidy rate is the sum of changes in externality costs (emissions + congestion), an opposite tax interaction effect, a redistribution effect between cities inhabitants and absentee landlords and a cost effect due to higher costs of producing travelling with power in comparison to fuel. The latter two effects are usually not considered in CBAs. Second, we extend the model to a full spatial general equilibrium model and employ simulations to calculate sign and size of the optimal subsidy or tax rate. This model is calibrated to a typical German metropolitan area. The results show that electric vehicles should not be subsidized but taxed. The results are robust with respect to changes in the willingness to adopt electric vehicles (EVs), changes in fix costs of EVs, and even if emission of EVs are zero. We change all these parameters to capture extreme and very unlikely behavior such as a very high demand elasticity of EVs with respect to the power tax rate, very low costs and the case that EVs have zero CO2 emissions. Concerning these variables we suggest that EVs should not be subsidized because welfare costs of achieving a small reduction in emissions are very high. We draw the conclusion that E-mobility might only be an efficient policy if it is considered as complement to other policies. This issue is left for future research.
机译:许多政府对电动汽车(E-mobility)进行补贴,以增加电动汽车(EV)在车队中的份额。目的是减少碳排放。尽管有很多关于这种措施的全部经济成本和收益的研究。仅有少数成本效益分析(CBA)。但是,它们没有考虑反冲和替代效应。我们填补了文献中的空白,并在完整的空间一般均衡模型中研究了对电动汽车的补贴。由于城市是将使用电动汽车的主要区域,因此我们专注于城市并采用空间方法。特别是,我们要询问对电动汽车进行补贴或征税是否最优,以及相应的最优税率是多少。首先,我们在一个具有两个区域的城市的空间局部均衡模型中,通过分析得出最佳补贴,该区域考虑通勤,碳排放,内生劳动力供给,燃油和电费税,并在其中区分燃油车和电动车。在那里,我们发现最佳补贴率是外部性成本(排放+拥堵)变化,相反的税收互动效应,城市居民与缺席房东之间的再分配效应以及由于生产动力旅行产生的较高成本而产生的成本效应之和。与燃料相比。在CBA中通常不考虑后两种影响。其次,我们将模型扩展到一个完整的空间一般均衡模型,并使用模拟来计算最优补贴或税率的符号和大小。该模型已针对典型的德国都会区进行了校准。结果表明,电动汽车不应该补贴而是要征税。在采用电动汽车(EV)的意愿发生变化,电动汽车的固定成本发生变化以及即使电动汽车的排放量为零的情况下,该结果也是可靠的。我们更改所有这些参数以捕获极端和极不可能的行为,例如电动汽车在电费税率方面的需求弹性很高,成本非常低以及电动汽车的二氧化碳排放量为零的情况。关于这些变量,我们建议不应补贴电动汽车,因为实现小幅减排的福利成本非常高。我们得出的结论是,电动出行只有在被视为对其他政策的补充时才可能是有效的政策。这个问题留待将来研究。

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