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Demystifying a shining example: German public finances under the debt brake

机译:揭开一个光辉榜样的神秘面纱:债务制裁下的德国公共财政

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摘要

German fiscal policy is nowadays often presented as a shining example due to successful budget consolidation after the Great Recession. However, the idea that the German success is the result of a well-thought-out economic strategy that could therefore serve as a role model for other countries does not stand up to closer scrutiny. First of all, Germanyu2019s fiscal policy escaped from an absolutely bleak outlook just three years ago only due to extraordinarily good luck. A completely unexpected soaring economic upturn in 2010 and 2011 led to the substantial easing of the burden on Germanyu2019s public budgets. Second, if the economy nosedived, public budgets would again be faced with severe cyclical constraints. Third, below the surface of the balanced government budget severe structural deficiencies of German tax and fiscal policies are hidden: excessive tax cuts in the past have led to continuing structural shortfalls in the budget that in turn caused a serious neglect of undisputedly necessary essential investments in the future of education, research and infrastructure. As long as the debt brake is in place, in order to overcome these deficiencies socially just tax increases should be used to finance the spending needs. It turns out, that to date a real policy shift in this direction is still lacking.
机译:由于大萧条后成功进行了预算合并,如今德国财政政策经常被作为光辉的榜样。但是,认为德国的成功是经过深思熟虑的经济战略的结果,因此可以作为其他国家的榜样,这一观点并没有受到更严格的审查。首先,仅仅由于好运,德国的财政政策就摆脱了三年前绝对黯淡的前景。 2010年和2011年完全出乎意料的经济好转激增,大大减轻了德国公共预算的负担。第二,如果经济急剧下滑,公共预算将再次面临严峻的周期性约束。第三,在平衡的政府预算之下,隐藏了德国税收和财政政策的严重结构性缺陷:过去过度的减税措施导致预算中结构性的持续短缺,进而导致对德国毫无疑问必要的必要投资的严重忽视。教育,研究和基础设施的未来。只要债务刹车到位,为了在社会上克服这些缺陷,应该使用增税来满足支出需求。事实证明,迄今为止,仍然缺乏朝着这个方向的真正政策转变。

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