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Determinants of government bond spreads in the Euro Area: in good times as in bad

机译:欧元区政府债券息差的决定因素:在经济繁荣时期和坏时期

摘要

Despite the single currency, yields on government bonds in the Euro Area deviate from German bond yields. These bond spreads are usually attributed to differing default and liquidity risks. Recent research points out that time-varying global factors, approximated by risk measures or short term interest rates, play an important role for the evaluation of theses risks. In this paper, instead of proxy variables latent processes are assumed to model the aforementioned time variation. We find, that default risks measured via expected debt-to-GDP ratio explain a good stake of the variation of bond spreads in the Euro area at least between 2003 and the take-off of the financial crisis. During the financial crisis default risks or rather their evaluation increased but lost relative importance compared to liquidity risks.
机译:尽管货币单一,欧元区政府债券的收益率却与德国债券的收益率有出入。这些债券利差通常归因于不同的违约风险和流动性风险。最近的研究指出,由风险度量或短期利率近似的时变全球因素在评估这些风险方面起着重要作用。在本文中,代替代理变量,假定使用潜在过程来模拟上述时间变化。我们发现,通过预期债务与GDP比率测得的违约风险至少在2003年至金融危机爆发之间解释了欧元区债券利差变化的重大风险。在金融危机期间,违约风险或更确切地讲,其评估水平有所提高,但与流动性风险相比却失去了相对重要性。

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