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Roadblocks on the Road to Grandma's House: Fertility Consequences of Delayed Retirement

机译:奶奶之家之路上的路障:延迟退休的生育后果

摘要

This paper investigates the role of childcare provided by grandparents for the fertility decisions of their offspring. We exploit a decade of pension reforms in Italy that mandated the grandparental generation to a working horizon longer than they would have had otherwise. We argue that the rise in retirement age meant a negative shock to the supply of informal childcare for the next generation. Our results show that one additional grandparent available in the early child-bearing years increases by about five percent the number of children. We show that the fertility effects of delayed retirement are limited to close-knits with a strong familistic structure. The result is not just the mechanical consequence of delayed exit from parental home, of more investment in education or of more attachment to the labour market. In light of the Italian lowest low fertility we conclude that pension reforms may have had unintended inter-generational effects. This conclusion is consistent with the sharp drop in total fertility documented by official statistics for the most conservative areas of the country.
机译:本文调查了祖父母提供的育儿在子女后代生育决策中的作用。我们在意大利进行了十年的养老金改革,使祖父母一代的工作视野比原先更长的时间。我们认为退休年龄的上升意味着对下一代非正式托儿服务的负面冲击。我们的研究结果表明,在生育早期,可以再增加一名祖父母或外祖父母,使孩子数量增加了大约5%。我们证明,延迟退休的生育力影响仅限于家族结构紧密的近亲。结果不仅是延迟离开父母之家,增加对教育的投资或对劳动力市场的依恋带来的机械后果。根据意大利最低的低生育率,我们得出结论,养老金改革可能产生了意想不到的代际影响。这一结论与该国最保守地区的官方统计数据表明的总生育率急剧下降是一致的。

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