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Multiple Regimes in Cross-Region Growth Regressions with Spatial Dependence: A Parametric and a Semi-parametric Approach

机译:具有空间依赖性的跨区域增长回归的多重制度:参数和半参数方法

摘要

This paper studies the distribution dynamics of development across European regions over the period 1975-2000. Regional development is measured in terms of both per capita GDP (Y/P) and its components: labour productivity and employment ratio (that in turn can be decomposed in terms of activity and unemployment rate). The Core/Periphery pattern in the European Union is firstly investigated and a comparative analysis in terms of income, productivity, employment and unemployment rates of the two partitions is carried out. Moreover, for each variable as well as for each partition, a nonparametric beta convergence analysis is applied. Synthetically, the results confirm the lack of regional convergence in per capita incomes, the presence of a negative quasi-linear relationship between growth rates and initial levels of labour productivity and a U-shaped relationship between growth rates and initial levels of unemployment rates. As it is well known, however, b-convergence analysis does not allow any test of multiple equilibria, such as u201cemerging twin peaksu201d, in the growth process. Equilibrium multiplicity can be properly assessed by using nonparametric techniques of analysis of the cross-regional distribution. In particular, a way to quantify the intra-distribution dynamics is the multivariate kernel, which estimates the joint density of regional income, productivity and (un)employment distribution at time t0 and t0+t. The results of this analysis suggest that over the period considered the regional growth pattern in Europe has followed a polarisation process rather than a convergence path. This appears particularly true in the case of per capita incomes and unemployment rates. Finally, in order to u201cexplainu201d polarisation, conditional multivariate kernels are estimated. In particular, the role of spatial contiguity and regional sectoral specialisation is investigated.
机译:本文研究了1975-2000年期间欧洲各地区发展的分布动态。区域发展是根据人均国内生产总值(Y / P)及其组成部分衡量的:劳动生产率和就业率(反过来又可以按照活动和失业率分解)。首先研究了欧洲联盟的核心/外围模式,并对这两个分区的收入,生产率,就业和失业率进行了比较分析。而且,对于每个变量以及每个分区,都应用非参数beta收敛分析。综合而言,这些结果证实了人均收入缺乏区域收敛性,增长率与劳动生产率的初始水平之间存在负的拟线性关系,以及增长率与失业率的初始水平之间呈U形关系。但是,众所周知,b收敛分析不允许在生长过程中对多个平衡进行任何测试,例如“合并双峰”。可以通过使用非参数技术分析跨区域分布来适当地评估均衡多样性。尤其是,量化内部分配动态的一种方法是多元内核,该内核估计时间t0和t0 + t时区域收入,生产率和(失业)分布的联合密度。分析的结果表明,在这段时期内,欧洲的区域增长模式遵循了极化过程而不是趋同路径。在人均收入和失业率的情况下尤其如此。最后,为了解释极化,对条件多元核进行了估计。特别是,研究了空间连续性和区域部门专业化的作用。

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