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The 2007-09 Global Financial Crisis and Financial Contagion Effects in African Stock Markets

机译:2007-09年非洲股票市场中的全球金融危机和金融传染效应

摘要

This thesis tests financial contagion from the US to ten African markets during the 2007-09 financial crisis. For comparative purposes, testing procedures are also extended to cover a number of developed-economy markets.There is considerable debate within the literature as to how to measure contagion. A central focus of my research is therefore to compare alternative econometric methodologies. VAR based constant-correlation based techniques are examined alongside dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) based techniques. I find that the DCC approach is superior in respect to my dataset.The 2007-09 crisis was unique from a contagion perspective in that its impact was truly global. This provided a unique opportunity to examine the subject across different continents and market types. African markets were found to have lower levels of integration (correlation) with the US than developed-economy markets and this resulted in considerable differences in the way that the contagion event spread across these two groups.As well as being truly global, the 2007-09 crisis was a contagion event that lasted more than a year. I use the volatility index (VIX) to identify both a long crisis period and a series of sub-events. The former ran from 15 September 2008 to 15 October 2009. The four sub-events were 15/09/2008-10/10/2008, 15/09/2008-17/10/2008, 15/09/2008-27/10/2008 and 15/09/2008-20/11/2008.Correlations (and contagion) changed significantly as sub-events unfolded. At the onset of the crisis, correlations with all African markets increased relatively quickly. I suggest that this can possibly be considered as being consistent with fast herdingivbehaviour. The impact on developed markets was very different in that contagion spread slowly. I suggest that this can possibly be considered as being consistent with slow herding.I argue that differences in contagion found between African and developed markets reflect differences in social network effects in investor communities. I apply behavioural finance theory to more fully explore this issue and identify the channels through which contagion events developed.
机译:本论文测试了2007-09年金融危机期间美国向十个非洲市场的金融传染。为了比较,测试程序也扩展到了许多发达的经济市场。文献中关于如何衡量传染性的争论很多。因此,我研究的重点是比较替代计量经济学方法。与基于动态条件相关(DCC)的技术一起检查了基于VAR的基于常数相关的技术。我发现DCC方法相对于我的数据集更优越.2007-09年危机从传染的角度来看是独特的,因为其影响确实是全球性的。这提供了一个独特的机会来检查不同大洲和市场类型的主题。发现非洲市场与美国市场的整合(相关性)水平低于发达经济体市场,这导致传染病在这两个群体之间传播的方式产生了巨大差异。2007- 09年的危机是持续了一年多的传染性事件。我使用波动率指数(VIX)来确定长期的危机时期和一系列子事件。前者的运行时间为2008年9月15日至2009年10月15日。四个子事件分别为15/09 / 2008-10 / 10 / 2008、15 / 09 / 2008-17 / 10 / 2008、15 / 09 / 2008-27 / 10/2008和15/09 / 2008-20 / 11/2008。随着子事件的展开,相关性(和传染性)发生了显着变化。危机开始时,与所有非洲市场的相互关​​系相对较快地增长。我建议,这可能被认为与快速的Herdingiv行为保持一致。传染病传播缓慢,对发达市场的影响截然不同。我认为这可能被认为与缓慢的放牧是一致的。我认为,非洲市场和发达市场之间传染性的差异反映了投资者社区中社交网络效应的差异。我运用行为金融理论来更全面地探讨这个问题,并确定传染事件发展的渠道。

著录项

  • 作者

    Ahmadu-Bello J.;

  • 作者单位
  • 年度 2014
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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 English
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