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Advanced techniques in multilevel growth curve modeling. Application to educational effectiveness research

机译:多级增长曲线建模中的先进技术。在教育效能研究中的应用

摘要

There has been a general belief in school effectiveness research that schools have a larger impact on their students’ growth than on their students’ outcomes at a certain point in time. This belief emanates mainly from the research results in which the school effect on student initial status for mathematics has been found to be about three times less than the school effect on learning rates or students’ progress over time. Several studies have prompted growth in student outcomes over time to gain great acceptance among many educational effectiveness researchers as the most appropriate criterion for assessing school effectiveness. The investigation of such changes in students’ outcomes has dramatically boosted the number of longitudinal studies in educational effectiveness researchin the last two decades. In addition to this, researchers now understand that cross-sectional designs underestimate the impact of schools and that these designs do not provide the proper framework for studies on school effectiveness. The use of repeated measures data make multilevel growth curve models an invaluable statistical tool in educational research. This is because a multilevel growth curve model estimates changes in student outcomes more accurately by taking into account the hierarchical nature of the data. Befitting results are not only appealingto researchers but also to policy makers and parents who both want a meticulous education for their citizens and children respectively. The main aim of this dissertation is to improve the statistical methods applied by educational effectiveness researchers in order to have more credible results. In this context, school effect estimates from traditional methods and the proposed methods of this dissertation are compared to argue persuasively for the need for more advanced techniques whenusing growth curve models. Such techniques will not only be applicable to educational effectiveness research in but to educational research as a whole and all other research fields interested in growth curve modelling. The school effect estimates on student status and student growth areused for different types of student outcomes like well-being, mathematics, and language achievement. Manuscript 1 defines clearly how the school effect on students’ growth can be estimated using multilevel growth curve models with more than two levels. It also shows how themanner of coding time affects these estimates. Manuscript 2 introduces techniques to properly handle multilevel growth curve models with serialcorrelation at higher levels beyond level 1, while Manuscript 3 introduces a new multilevel growth curve model which can be used to model growth data with two or more levels of serial correlation simultaneously. Because most studies of school effects on students’ growth have focused only on one effectiveness criterion, which is problematic given that schooleffects are only moderately consistent over different criteria. Moreover, the consistency issue has seldom been studied through multivariate growth curve models; Manuscript 4 introduces a model that can handle multivariate multilevel growth data with an unequal number of measurement occasions. Data from the LOSO-project (the Dutch acronym for Longitudinal Research in Secondary Education) and the SiBO-project (the Dutch acronym for School Career in Primary School) are used to answer theresearch questions of this dissertation. The main software used is SAS 9.2, MLwiN 2.02 and Mplus 6.1. This dissertation shows clearly how the choice of a time coding affects school effect estimates and their interpretation. It also recommends that the choice of a time coding should not only be based on the ease of interpretation andmodel convergence. The results show that school effects on students’ well-being and language achievement in secondary school are greater for student growth than for student status. This work also indicates that the common assumption of serially uncorrelated level 1 residuals usually fails and therefore the need for appropriate modelling of this serial correlation is invaluable. These results demonstrate how modelling of serially correlated residuals at level 1 or level 2 has a huge payoff on schooleffects estimates. Because of the increasing popularity of multilevel growth curve models as a flexible tool for investigating longitudinal change in students’ outcomes, this study investigates some covert issues inmethodology resulting from repeated measures data structure. A complex double serial correlation multilevel growth curve model is developed andthe results of this model show great improvement in school effects estimates compared to those of models without double serial correlation correction. This dissertation also investigates the school effects on pupils’ growth in both mathematics and reading comprehension (and their relation) in primary schools taking previous changes in mathematics into account through a bivariate transition multilevel growth curve model. The results show that stronger growth in mathematics tends to associate with stronger growth in reading comprehension. Earlier growth in mathematics isalso found to predict subsequent growth in reading comprehension.
机译:人们普遍相信,在学校效能研究中,学校对学生成长的影响要大于对某个时间点学生的学习成绩的影响。这种信念主要源于研究结果,在该研究结果中,学校对数学学生的初始状态的影响大约是学校对学习率或学生随时间发展的影响的三倍。数项研究促使学生成绩随着时间的增长而获得了众多教育有效性研究人员的广泛认可,这是评估学校有效性的最适当标准。在过去的二十年中,对学生成绩的这种变化进行的调查极大地增加了教育有效性研究中的纵向研究的数量。除此之外,研究人员现在知道,横断面设计低估了学校的影响,并且这些设计没有为研究学校效能提供适当的框架。重复测量数据的使用使多级增长曲线模型成为教育研究中不可估量的统计工具。这是因为多级增长曲线模型通过考虑数据的分层性质,可以更准确地估算学生成绩的变化。合适的结果不仅吸引研究人员,而且吸引决策者和父母,他们都希望分别对其公民和孩子进行细致的教育。本文的主要目的是改进教育有效性研究人员所采用的统计方法,以便获得更可信的结果。在这种情况下,比较了传统方法和本文提出的方法的学校效果估计,以有说服力地论证了使用增长曲线模型时是否需要更先进的技术。这样的技术不仅适用于教育有效性研究,而且适用于整个教育研究以及所有对增长曲线建模感兴趣的其他研究领域。对学生状况和学生成长的学校影响估计用于不同类型的学生成果,例如幸福感,数学和语言成就。手册1明确定义了如何使用两个以上级别的多级增长曲线模型来估计学校对学生成长的影响。它还显示了编码时间的方式如何影响这些估计。手册2引入了一些技术,以正确地处理具有高于1级的更高级别的序列相关性的多级增长曲线模型,而手稿3引入了一种新的多级增长曲线模型,该模型可用于同时建模具有两个或更多级序列相关性的增长数据。由于大多数关于学校对学生成长的影响的研究都只集中于一个有效性标准,因此考虑到在不同的标准下学校效果只是中等程度的一致,这是有问题的。此外,很少通过多元增长曲线模型研究一致性问题。原稿4引入了一个模型,该模型可以处理具有不等数量的测量场合的多变量多级增长数据。来自LOSO项目(中学教育纵向研究的荷兰缩写)和SiBO项目(小学学校职业的荷兰缩写)的数据用于回答本文的研究问题。使用的主要软件是SAS 9.2,MLwiN 2.02和Mplus 6.1。论文清楚地说明了时间编码的选择如何影响学校效果估计及其解释。它还建议,时间编码的选择不仅应基于解释的容易程度和模型收敛性。结果表明,学校对中学学生的幸福感和语言水平的影响,对学生成长的影响大于对学生身份的影响。这项工作还表明,序列不相关的1级残差的一般假设通常会失败,因此对该序列相关进行适当建模的需求非常宝贵。这些结果表明,在1级或2级序列相关残差的建模如何对学业影响估计产生巨大的回报。由于多级增长曲线模型作为一种用于调查学生成绩的纵向变化的灵活工具而越来越受欢迎,本研究调查了由于重复测量数据结构而导致的一些方法学上的隐秘问题。建立了复杂的双序列相关多级增长曲线模型,该模型的结果表明,与未进行双序列相关校正的模型相比,该模型的学校效果估计有很大的提高。本文还通过双变量过渡多级增长曲线模型,研究了学校对小学数学和阅读理解(及其关系)学生成长的影响,并考虑了先前的数学变化。结果表明,数学的强劲增长往往与阅读理解能力的强劲增长相关。还发现数学的较早增长可以预测阅读理解的后续增长。

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    Anumendem Dickson Nkafu;

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  • 年度 2011
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