Predicting distribution of white stork (Ciconia ciconia Linnaeus, 1758) under climate change in Turkey

摘要

Turkey has different habitats for bird species because of its location and geographical characteristics and also its location is used by birds as a migratory route. Although the white stork (Ciconia ciconia) is a summer immigrant coming in spring and leaving in autumn, it can be seen in Turkey continuously. In this study, it is aimed to determine the present and future situation of the white stork which is seen as a significant bird in Anatolian culture. For this purpose, white stork data recorded in Turkey between the years 2000-2018 were downloaded from Global Biodiversity Information Facility (www.gbif.org) website. These presence data were classified as 472 for spring, 457 for summer, 159 for autumn and 62 for winter. Elevation, slope, ruggedness index, topographic position index and climate variables were prepared using ArcMap 10.2 software. In order to determine the future status of the target species, the scenarios HadGEM2 RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 of 2050 and 2070 were used. Models obtained with MaxEnt software, the data were divided into 75% training and 25% test data and cross validation test was performed. Spring, summer, autumn and winter seasons of the models created for today and future potential maps were obtained. It was determined that climate variables made the most contribution to the models and slope, ruggedness index and topographic position index were the following variables having important contributions. As a result, there is no potential threat in the future climate scenarios for white storks in Turkey. In particular, according to the 2070 RCP 8.5 scenario, the potential is predicted to ameliorate in all seasons. In the coming years, it is expected that the Bosphorus, which is located on the migration road of birds, will be used more frequently. Furthermore, it is foreseen that the increase in the future temperature and the decrease in precipitation will affect this situation.