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Implementing Monte Carlo tests with p‐value buckets

机译:使用P值桶实施Monte Carlo测试

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摘要

Software packages usually report the results of statistical tests usingp-values. Users often interpret these by comparing them to standard thresholds,e.g. 0.1%, 1% and 5%, which is sometimes reinforced by a star rating (***, **,*). In this article, we consider an arbitrary statistical test whose p-value pis not available explicitly, but can be approximated by Monte Carlo samples,e.g. by bootstrap or permutation tests. The standard implementation of suchtests usually draws a fixed number of samples to approximate p. However, theprobability that the exact and the approximated p-value lie on different sidesof a threshold (the resampling risk) can be high, particularly for p-valuesclose to a threshold. We present a method to overcome this. We consider afinite set of user-specified intervals which cover [0,1] and which can beoverlapping. We call these p-value buckets. We present algorithms that, witharbitrarily high probability, return a p-value bucket containing p. We provethat for both a bounded resampling risk and a finite runtime, overlappingbuckets need to be employed, and that our methods both bound the resamplingrisk and guarantee a finite runtime for such overlapping buckets. To interpretdecisions with overlapping buckets, we propose an extension of the star ratingsystem. We demonstrate that our methods are suitable for use in standardsoftware, including for low p-values occurring in multiple testing settings,and that they can be computationally more efficient than standardimplementations.
机译:软件包通常报告使用P值的统计测试结果。用户通常通过将它们与标准阈值进行比较来解释这些,例如。 0.1%,1%和5%,有时由星级(***,**,*)加强。在本文中,我们考虑了一个任意统计测试,其P值PIS明确无可用,但可以由Monte Carlo样品近似,例如,可以近似。通过引导或排列测试。 Mustests的标准实施通常绘制固定数量的样本以近似p。然而,近似的p值在阈值(重采样风险)上的确切和近似的p值位于阈值(重采样风险)的方法可以很高,特别是对于阈值的p值。我们提出了一种克服这一点的方法。我们考虑一组用于覆盖的用户指定的间隔,覆盖[0,1],哪个可以捆绑。我们称之为这些p值桶。我们提供了算法,占用高概率,返回包含p的p值桶。我们认为有界重采样风险和有限运行时,需要采用重叠的重叠,并且我们的方法都绑定了重复样本,并保证了这种重叠桶的有限运行时。使用重叠桶来解释重现,我们提出了星形评估系统的扩展。我们证明我们的方法适用于标准设备,包括在多个测试设置中发生的低p值,并且它们可以比标准拼接计算得多。

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