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Global Economic Divergence and Portfolio Capital Flows to Emerging Markets

机译:全球经济分歧和投资组合资本流向新兴市场

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摘要

This paper studies the role of global and regional variations in economic activity and policy in developed world in driving portfolio capital flows (PCF) to emerging markets (EMs) in a Factor Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) framework. Results suggest that PCFs to EMs depend mainly on economic activity at the global level and monetary policy in America, positively on the former and negatively on the latter. In contrast, economic activity and policy shocks in Europe and Asia contribute significantly less to variations in PCFs to EMs. Hence, PCFs are driven by not only common shocks across all developed countries, but also variations in specific regions. This implies that economic divergence in the developed world can have significant effects on EMs via PCFs.
机译:本文研究了在一个因素增强的传染媒介自回归(Favar)框架中驾驶投资组合资本流量(PCF)到新兴市场(PCF)在发达国家的全球和区域变化在发达国家中的经济活动和政策的作用。结果表明,PCFS到EMS主要依赖于美国全球水平和美国货币政策的经济活动,积极地对前者和后者负面。相比之下,欧洲和亚洲的经济活动和政策休克对PCFS对EMS的变化贡献显着较低。因此,PCF不仅受到所有发达国家的共同冲击,而且在特定地区的变化也是如此。这意味着发达国家的经济分歧可能通过PCF对EMS产生重大影响。

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