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Factors influencing householder self-evacuation in two Australian bushfires

机译:影响两户澳大利亚森林大火户主自我疏散的因素

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The thesis investigated householder self-evacuation decision-making during bushfires in the Perth and Adelaide Hills in 2014 and 2015. It explored the factors that influenced householders’ decisions to evacuate, identified factors that predict self-evacuation and established the characteristics of self-evacuators. The Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) provided a conceptual framework for the research. Its theoretical and analytical usefulness in an Australian context, was assessed. A mixed methods research strategy was used involving quantitative telephone surveys of 457 bushfire-affected participants and face-to-face interviews of 109 participants in 59 households. The study concluded that environmental and social cues and warnings and householders’ perceptions of the threat, of hazard adjustments and of other stakeholders, influenced self-evacuation decision-making. Protective action perceptions, particularly the effectiveness of evacuating or not evacuating in protecting personal safety or property, were most important in predicting self-evacuation. Receipt of official warnings and the perception of likely impact of the bushfire on property were also important predictors. Undertaking long-run hazard adjustments, although not predictive of self-evacuation, was pivotal in shaping perceptions of the effectiveness of evacuating and remaining in protecting personal safety and property and indirectly influenced evacuation decisions. Seven archetypes that characterised householders’ self-evacuation attitudes and behaviour were identified. These included Threat, and Responsibility Deniers, Dependent, and Considered Evacuators, Community Guided and Experienced Independents all who took different decisional ‘rules of thumb’ and routes toward evacuating or remaining . The PADM needs to be split into two separate models to incorporate the influence of long-run hazard adjustments on protective action decision-making in an Australian bushfire. The findings suggest that future research on those who wait and see during a bushfire should take account of their decisional rules of thumb and that design and targeting of Australian bushfire safety policy should better account for self-evacuator characteristics.
机译:本文调查了2014年和2015年珀斯和阿德莱德山林区大火期间的居民自我疏散决策。探讨了影响居民的因素。撤离的决定,确定预测自我撤离的因素并确定自我撤离者的特征。保护行动决策模型(PADM)为研究提供了概念框架。评估了其在澳大利亚的理论和分析实用性。使用了一种混合方法研究策略,包括对457例受大火袭击的参与者进行定量电话调查,以及对59户家庭中109名参与者的面对面访谈。该研究得出的结论是,环境和社会暗示与警告以及住户对威胁,危害调整以及其他利益相关者的理解影响了自我疏散决策。保护行动的看法,尤其是撤离或不撤离对保护人身安全或财产的有效性,对预测自我撤离最为重要。收到官方警告以及森林大火可能对财产造成影响的感知也是重要的预测指标。进行长期危险调整,尽管不能预测会自动撤离,但对于树立对撤离和保持人员保护人身安全和财产的有效性的认识至关重要,并间接影响了撤离决策。表征住户的七种原型确定了自我疏散的态度和行为。其中包括威胁和责任否认者,受抚养者和考虑撤离者,社区指导者和有经验的独立人士,他们采取了不同的“拇指法则”。以及撤离或留下的路线。 PADM需要分为两个单独的模型,以纳入长期危害调整对澳大利亚丛林大火中保护行动决策的影响。研究结果表明,对于在丛林大火期间观望的人的未来研究应考虑到他们的决策经验规则,澳大利亚丛林大火安全政策的设计和目标定位应更好地考虑自我疏散者的特征。

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    Strahan K;

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