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Optimization of an Upstream Supply Chain - Developing the Optimal Supply Chain for Exploration Drilling Operations on the NCS

机译:优化上游供应链-为NCS上的勘探钻井开发最佳供应链

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摘要

The oil and gas industry is currently the largest industry in Norway, and it is expected to remain so in years to come. Only 44 % of the projected total recoverable resources have been extracted, and new discoveries are still being made. In order for this industry to maintain its position, new resources must be proven, and this requires exploration drilling. During these operations, the operators require an extensive supply of equipment and services, and are therefor highly dependent on safe and reliable supply services. Furthermore, there is an increasing focus on cost-effectiveness for offshore activities, and it is believed that an optimal upstream supply logistic will provide a significant reduction in these cost levels. This report presents an academic study of supply logistic strategies for exploration drilling operations on the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS). The aim of this study is to utilize optimization to determine the most cost-effective supply operation for exploration drilling for both planned and unplanned demands, and use this to initiate a discussion on the supply logistics. Offshore supply operations are complex, and good logistics and planning are therefore essential elements in achieving excellence. Traditionally, experienced logistic personnel perform the scheduling and route planning manually. But due to the significant amount of variables that must be considered, manual planning may fail to investigate all possible solutions. Therefore, optimization can be used as a decision support tool, and aid the planners in their work.The problem presented in this thesis is a planning problem in which the operator is responsible for the inventory management, and the routing and scheduling of the deliveries. These problems are classified as Inventory Routing Problem (IRP). This methodology enables the planners to evaluate both the optimal inventory levels and the routing and scheduling decisions, which provides a supply chain that optimize both aspects. The thesis addresses the tactical and operational aspect of the traditional supply chain, and a mathematical model will determine the optimal supply alternatives for both planned (deterministic) and unplanned (stochastic) demands. The mathematical model that is developed for this study is a mixed integer, two-stage recourse model. The model is implemented in the commercial software FICOTM Xpress Optimization Suit, and tested on a case study in which four offshore facilities require supply services. The solution from the case study yields that the four offshore installations can be serviced by two PSVs during a time horizon of five days, and all the installations should have two visits each. To address the issue with unexpected demands that makes the estimated deterministic stock levels insufficient, late deliveries are performed. The preferred alternative for the late deliveries is to use helicopters. However, as the amount of the unexpected demands increases, an alternative that combines an additional storage at the onshore base and the spot chartering of an additional PSV, becomes the preferable solution. The cost of the estimated planned deliveries is 88,707 $, and the estimated cost of the late deliveries is 17,514 $. The cost saving of using late deliveries compared to the risk of downtime, is estimated to be approximately 20 %, this is therefor the preferred solution. Still, the cost of the late deliveries might get extensive. If information about the real demands can be revealed during the planning of the initial schedules, these demands can be incorporated in the schedules, which has a potential cost saving of 16 %.
机译:石油和天然气行业目前是挪威最大的行业,并且有望在未来几年保持这种状态。预计只有44%的可采资源总量已被开采,并且仍在进行新的发现。为了保持该行业的地位,必须证明新资源,这需要进行勘探钻探。在这些操作期间,操作员需要大量的设备和服务供应,因此高度依赖于安全可靠的供应服务。此外,人们越来越关注海上作业的成本效益,并且相信最佳的上游供应物流将大大降低这些成本水平。本报告对挪威大陆架(NCS)上的勘探钻井作业的供应物流策略进行了学术研究。这项研究的目的是利用优化来确定针对计划内和计划外需求的勘探钻井的最具成本效益的供应操作,并以此来启动关于供应物流的讨论。离岸供应业务很复杂,因此良好的物流和计划是实现卓越的基本要素。传统上,经验丰富的物流人员手动执行计划和路线规划。但是由于必须考虑大量变量,因此手动计划可能无法研究所有可能的解决方案。因此,优化可以用作决策支持工具,并有助于计划人员的工作。本文提出的问题是一个计划问题,其中操作员负责库存管理以及交货的路线和调度。这些问题被分类为库存路由问题(IRP)。这种方法使计划人员可以评估最佳库存水平以及工艺路线和计划决策,从而提供一个可以优化这两个方面的供应链。本文着眼于传统供应链的战术和运营方面,而数学模型将确定计划(确定性)和非计划(随机)需求的最佳供应选择。为此研究开发的数学模型是混合整数两阶段追索模型。该模型在商业软件FICOTM Xpress Optimization Suit中实现,并在案例研究中进行了测试,该案例中有四个离岸设施需要提供服务。案例研究得出的解决方案表明,可以在5天的时间范围内由两个PSV为四个海上设施提供服务,并且所有设施均应进行两次造访。为了解决因意外需求而导致估计的确定性库存水平不足的问题,请执行延迟交货。延迟交货的首选替代方法是使用直升机。但是,随着意外需求量的增加,将陆上基地的额外存储与额外PSV的现货租赁相结合的替代方案成为首选解决方案。预计计划交付的成本为88,707美元,而延迟交付的估计成本为17,514美元。与停机风险相比,使用延迟交付的成本节省估计约为20%,因此这是首选的解决方案。不过,延迟交货的成本可能会很高。如果可以在初始时间表的计划期间显示有关实际需求的信息,则可以将这些需求合并到时间表中,这样可以节省16%的成本。

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    Engh Hanne Dreyer;

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  • 年度 2015
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  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
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