Stochastic Life-Cycle Model (SLCM): Simulating the Population Dynamics ofAnadromous Salmonids

摘要

A stochastic model simulating the life cycle of anadromous salmonids that mimicsthe basic mechanisms regulating populations of Pacific salmon is presented. The SLCM incorporates stochastic or probablistic processes at each step in the life cycle. The model's predictions are expressed in probabilistic terms. The model is designed to use inputs from more detailed models for specific life stages, in combination with a minimum number of empirically based parameters. Users can choose among three density-dependent relationships to describe egg -to-smolt survival and among a variety of scenarios involving hatchery and natural production. The model is written in the SAS programming language, which allows it to be used on a variety of computing systems and enhances flexibility in analyzing model output.