China's Very Rapid Economic, Industrial and Technological Emergence

摘要

Except for a small, relatively unsophisticated nuclear arsenal, and short range rocketry, China's production of modern technology was extremely limited even 10 years ago. For example, although China's first computer was built in 1958 based on a Soviet model, almost all components were imported with very limited production even during the 1980s. Even in 1990 China's meager computer production was inconsequential. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990 and the success of the US high tech military operations against Iraq, made dramatic impressions on the Chinese leadership. Production of computers and other advanced technology products were a principal goal of China's 8th 5 year development plan (1990-1995,) its 9th five year plan, and is central to its current 10th five year plan that runs through 2005. Illustrative of the success of its technology development plans in the early 1990s, by 1995 China's slight computer production had soared and accounted for 1.9% of world production; far behind the US--with 26.5% of world production -- or any G7 country, but equal to that of Thailand. However, by 2000, China's global share of computer production more than tripled to 6.9%, far surpassing that of any European country and trailing only the US, Japan and Singapore. China's computer production almost certainly surpassed that of Singapore in 2001 and appears on a track to surpass Japan's production in 2003 and could even surpass the US in 2005 or 2006.