Economics of Undiscovered Oil in Federal Lands on the National Petroleum Reserve, Alaska

摘要

This report summarizes the economic analysis of the U.S. Geological Survey's 2002 petroleum assessment of the Federal lands in the National Petroleum Reserve Alaska (NPRA) study area. In addition to Federal lands, the study area included Native Lands within NPRA and areas underlying Alaska State waters. Estimates of technically recoverable oil in undiscovered oil accumulations in the Federal area of NPRA range from 5.9 billion barrels of oil (BBO) to 13.2 BBO, with a mean of 9.3 BBO. The ranges in estimated volumes correspond to the 95 percent probability (that is, a 19 in 20 chance the actual volume will exceed that 95th fractile volume) and the 5 percent probability level (1 in 20 chance the actual will exceed 5th fractile volume), respectively. Estimates of technically recoverable non-associated gas in undiscovered gas accumulations range from 39.1 (95th fractile) to 83.2 (5th fractile) trillion cubic feet of gas (TCF) with a mean value of 59.7 TCF. Non-associated gas resources were not evaluated in the economic analysis because a market for newly discovered North Slope gas remains to be developed.