Economic Analysis of the 2010 U.S. Geological Survey Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska

摘要

This report summarizes the economic analysis of the U.S. Geological Survey's 2010 assessment of oil and gas in undiscovered accumulations in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska (NPRA); the assessment results were released by D.W. Houseknecht and others in October 2010 in USGS Fact Sheet 2010-3102. The assessment study area includes Federal, State, and Native lands within the NPRA boundary plus State offshore areas on the landward side of the State-Federal offshore boundary. Estimates of technically recoverable oil in undiscovered oil accumulations range from 336 to 1,707 million barrels of oil (MMBO) with a mean of 895 MMBO. The endpoints of the range in estimated volumes correspond to the 95-percent probability level (that is, a 19-in-20 chance that the actual volume will exceed the 95th-fractile volume) and the 5-percent probability level (1-in-20 chance that the actual volume will exceed the 5th-fractile volume), respectively. Similarly, the 95th- and 5th-fractile estimates of technically recoverable gas volumes in undiscovered gas accumulations range from 31.0 to 77.5 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of gas with a mean value of 52.8 TCF.