Assessing the Utility of an Automated 0-1 h Tactical Convective Hazard Product to FAA Air Traffic Managers: Interim Report Submitted to FAA ARS-100 and AUA-430

摘要

In response to FAA requirements for thunderstorm forecasts for traffic managers, NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL) and the Ft Worth ARTCC/CWSU recently evaluated the utility of an automated graphical 0-1 hour thunderstorm forecast. The requirements call for a graphical tactical (0-2 hour) forecast and a graphical strategic (2-6 hour) forecast--each of which combine attributes of existing forecasts in order to mitigate negative impacts that can result from multiple forecasts that provide conflicting information. Our initial work focused on defining, creating, and evaluating a 0-1 hour graphical forecast (which we call the Tactical Convective Hazard Product; TCHP) that combined key attributes of two operational products: National Convective Weather Forecast (NCWF) and Convective SIGMETs. We chose to focus only on 0-1 hours because NCWF forecasts beyond one hour are not yet available. NCWF is generated automatically every five minutes and includes a detection field (based on radar and lightning observations) and 1 hour forecast based on extrapolation. Convective SIGMETs (produced hourly by NWS/Aviation Weather Center forecasters) depict current convection and include motion information from which we derived 1-hour forecasts via extrapolation. In addition to NCWF and Convective SIGMETs, the TCHP included: 1) map and data overlays (selectable by traffic managers); and 2) a jet route display with specific routes colored if currently impacted by convection or forecast to be impacted within 60 minutes.