Feasibility of Forecasting Highway Safety in Support of Safety Incentive and Safety Target Programs

摘要

Using the frequency of fatal crashes from the current observation period (e.g. month, year, etc.) as the prediction of expected future performance does not account for changes in safety that result from increases in exposure (population, additional roads, new drivers, etc.). This effect is especially pronounced in rapidly growing regions, where safety changes are anticipated in the absence of safety investment programs. The objective of this study was to examine the feasibility of predicting future fatal motor vehicle crashes given changes in future risk exposure, so that reasonable safety targets can be established in support of a safety incentive or safety target programs. Safety incentive or target programs can be used to set future safety targets (i.e. fatal crashes) for jurisdictions in Arizona.