Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook, November 2010: Livestock Markets Respond to Higher Feed Costs

摘要

This monthly report, presented in a newsletter format, provides current intelligence and forecasts the effects of changing conditions in the U.S. livestock, dairy, and poultry sectors. Topics include current production, consumption, trade, prices received, and more. Periodically, special reports on specific commodity issues also are released in this series. Continued heavy cow slaughter and high placements of heifers in feedlots keep a lid on cow herd expansion. Feedlots continue to place cattle despite higher corn prices and declining fed cattle prices, and packers continue to slaughter cattle at rates inconsistent with declining wholesale prices. Beef exports for 2010 are forecast at 2.29 billion pounds, which is 17-percent growth year-over-year. Higher hog weights and higher-than-expected pork cold stocks were factors in lower October hog and pork prices. Next year the U.S. pork industry will struggle to adjust to expected higher feed costs, with little attention given to expansion. Pork production next year is expected to be 1.5 percent above the 2010 level. Lower thirdquarter exports are likely attributable to higher U.S. pork prices. Broiler meat production in fourth-quarter 2010 is forecast at 9.2 billion pounds, up 4 percent from the previous year. For 2010, broiler meat production is forecast at 36.6 billion pounds, 3 percent higher than in 2009. September 2010 broiler shipments were up, exceeding shipments last September by 6.7-percent. Turkey shipments were also up slightly (1.3 percent) in September from a year ago. Higher feed prices will limit gains in milk production in 2011. Improving domestic demand and strong export prospects, especially for nonfat dry milk, should keep the all milk price in 2011 very near this years expected average. Imports are forecast lower next year. Exports on a fats basis are expected to decline next year, while exports on a skim-solids basis will remain strong.