Virginia Economic Indicators, Volume 41, Number 3. U.S. 2009 Estimates and 2010-2012 Projections and Virginia Third Quarter 2009 Data with Year-end Area Estimates

摘要

In the forecast, the U.S. economy finally emerges from the longest, but not quite the worst recession of the post-World War II perioda recession that was brought on by over-speculation in the real estate and financial markets. Massive stimulus spending and years of near zero interest rates are necessary to bring the economy back, but to have not taken these corrective actions would likely have meant a deep, decade-long recession. A year after the 2008 financial crisis, progress to restore credit/liquidity to all sectors of the economy and revive job creation in the dominantly service economy seems painfully slow. It is 2012 before things seem to be getting back to normal. The expansion needs time to build on itself. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is expected to be below three percent for 2010 and 2011. By 2012 and beyond, GDP growth should climb above three percent. As the economy grows again, tax revenues return, and the $1.4 trillion federal deficit is whittled down to less than $900 billion with inflation and interest rates staying moderately low. Energy prices rise moderately over the forecast period, but never get out of hand as they did in 2008.