Improved Geospatial Scenarios for Commercial Marine Vessels

摘要

This project updates geographically resolved commercial marine emissions inventories and scenarios for cargo traffic in shipping lanes serving U. S. continental coastlines. A primary objective of this project is to provide geographically-resolved vessel-specific estimates of commercial marine vessel (CMV) emissions in North American waters that are consistent with earlier studies for the California Air Resources Board (ARB). On a vessel-type specific bases, growth trends describing trade and energy requirements for North American cargo and passenger vessels are applied to 2002 data to produce unconstrained business as usual (BAU) estimates for 2010 (prior to international sulfur regulations), and a 2020 scenario assuming International Maritime Organization (IMO)-compliant reductions in global fuel sulfur. Two growth scenarios are illustrated: Scenario 1, approximating the same composite growth rates as previous work (pre-recession), and Scenario 2, employing lower growth rates. Vessel-type specific growth patterns provide better regional clarity of commercial marine emissions for North America that supports the California Resources Board (ARB). Commission for Environmental Cooperation in North America (CEC), western regional states, United States federal, and multinational efforts to quantify and evaluate potential air pollution impacts from shipping in U. S., Canadian and Mexican coastal waters. This work will provide greater details and improved spatial scenarios of commercial marine emissions for North American coastal waters that supports the ARB, western regional states, federal and international efforts to quantify and evaluate potential air pollution and and climate impacts from shipping.