Multi-Year Revenue and Expenditure Forecasting. The State-of-the-Practice in Large Urban Jurisdictions

摘要

This document, produced for HUD's series of National Problem - Solving Workshops on Revenue and Expenditure Forecasting, discusses multiyear revenue and expenditure forecasting as practiced by the country's largest jurisdictions: Austin, Tex., Columbus, Ohio, Dallas, Tex., Irvine, Calif., New Orleans, La., New York, N.Y., Portland, Oreg., San Antonio, Tex., San Diego, Calif., and Washington, D.C. The site assessments for these jurisdictions identified six basic approaches to financial forecasting: expert judgment; trend analysis; a series of independent, econometric equations (i.e., multiple regression analysis); dependent, econometric equations (i.e., a simultaneous equations model); an incremental approach, adjusting existing personnel costs for new wage packages, inflation, and other expected changes; and a deterministic approach with structural equations. Other findings were that jurisdictions have used multiyear financial forecasts in numerous ways to improve their planning, budgeting, and decisionmaking capabilities and that these forecasts can economically benefit a jurisdiction directly. The impetus behind the development of these forecasts is discussed as well as a technical analysis of the models, key factors to consider when developing financial forecasts, and the limitations of these forecasts. Site assessment reports for each jurisdiction are provided in addition to sample forms, addresses and telephone numbers of resource people, and a glossary of terms.