The Fertility Impact of Traditional and Changing Childspacing Practices in Tropical Africa

摘要

This paper presents a mathematical model to study the relationship between fertility levels and intermediate fertility variables such as the proportion reproductive years spent in marriage and the frequency of use of natural or artificial contraceptive measures. This analytic framework is demonstrated by calculating and comparing the fertility rates of one African and two Western societies. Next the author discusses the role of variations in the duration of postpartum abstinence on fertility levels. The relationship between lengths of abstinence (3-30 months) and the proportionate female use of contraceptive on fertility is calculated, and the strong fertility-inhibiting effect of lactation is made evident. For example, according to the model, an 88% decrease in the length of the abstinence period doubles fertility, while a 50% increase in use of contraceptive measures reduces fertility by 50% for all durations of infecundability. Further research into the prevalence of postpartum abstinence customs in Africa is encouraged.