Alaska OCS Socioeconomic Studies Program. Technical Report Number 26. Developing Predictive Indicators of Community and Population Change

摘要

The goal of the Predictive Indicator Study is to improve our ability to anticipate the social and economic effects of energy developments on Alaskan communities. The primary problem addressed by the research is that the same general type of energy development is likely to result in different changes among individuals and communities. This report presents results of research that attempts to explain these differences. The explanation is based on the idea that observable community and individual characteristics somehow influence the effects of outside forces of change. The authors have drawn upon the oil pipeline impact experiences of Fairbanks and Valdez, Alaska to identify the relationships between community and individual characteristics that can be observed prior to impact on the one hand and impact experiences and assessments on the other. These relationships may be shown in future studies to apply to communities and individuals generally, or at least to apply to a large proportion of the population which may be affected by such energy developments. To the extent that the relationships appear to have a general application, they can be used in combination with observations of specific community characteristics and development forces to predict likely patterns of impact.